R - FIFA football world cup 2018
2018 FIFA World cup football is reaching end of pool phase. It is now time, to revisit, previous blog post on this topic, and to analyze results of the 8 groups.
Results
Let’s review each group and analyze how it fits with provided diagrams of previous post
group A
| Team | Games played | Victories | Ties | Defeats | Goals scored | goals conceded | goal difference | points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uruguay | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| Russia | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 6 |
| Saudi Arabia | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 3 |
| Egypt | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 0 |
Very simple group, from a result point of view. No tie, one great leader, that is Uruguay, won all its games. One second leader, that won all its games except one. Refer to first diagram of previous post and you’ll see that it is the most extreme case on far left of the diagram without any tie.
group B
| Team | Games played | Victories | Ties | Defeats | Goals scored | goals conceded | goal difference | points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 5 |
| Portugal | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 5 |
| IR Iran | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| Morroco | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 1 |
Much more complex group, much disputed, and a final tie on first place between Spain and Portugal. Refer to first tie diagram of previous post to consider result. Untie between the two team is given by the rules Official document. Look at page 26 to get the decision rules allowing to break the ties at the end of the group matches. Here, decision is taken on number of goals scored that is the c) condition considered, that allows to differentiate Spain from Portugal.
group C
| Team | Games played | Victories | Ties | Defeats | Goals scored | goals conceded | goal difference | points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| Danemark | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| Peru | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| Australia | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 1 |
Simple case, no tie, one leader France, one second Danemark. Refer to diagram and you’ll see that it is the 4th case from the left of the diagram.
group D
| Team | Games played | Victories | Ties | Defeats | Goals scored | goals conceded | goal difference | points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Croatia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 9 |
| Argentina | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 |
| Nigeria | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 3 |
| Iceland | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 1 |
No tie, one top leader Croatia, one second miraculated Argentina. Refer to diagram and you’ll see that it is the 2nd case from the left of the diagram.
group E
| Team | Games played | Victories | Ties | Defeats | Goals scored | goals conceded | goal difference | points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| Switzerland | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 5 |
| Serbia | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| Costa Rica | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 1 |
No tie, one top leader Brazil, one vigourous second Switzerland. 4th case from the left taken on diagram.
group F
| Team | Games played | Victories | Ties | Defeats | Goals scored | goals conceded | goal difference | points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sweden | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| Mexico | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 6 |
| Korea Republic | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| Germany | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 3 |
A great surprise with Germany outgoing the competition. Nearly impredictable result! Tie on first place with 6 points, that is 2nd case from the left taken on diagram.
group G
| Team | Games played | Victories | Ties | Defeats | Goals scored | goals conceded | goal difference | points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 9 |
| England | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Tunisia | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 3 |
| Panama | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 0 |
No tie. Clear winner Belgium. Good second England. Refer to 1st case from left of diagram.
group H
| Team | Games played | Victories | Ties | Defeats | Goals scored | goals conceded | goal difference | points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colombia | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| Japan | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| Senegal | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| Poland | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 3 |
No tie for first place, Colombia. Tie for second place. Refer to 5 case from left of diagram. Tie break down by FIFA rule h) page 26. Apparently, first time in history where fair-play enters in action to decide between two teams.
Team performance
If we rank teams according to the obtained points, and consider official untie rules, then following table provides team performance, according to FIFA
| Place | Team | Points | Qualified as | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belgium | 9 | Qualified as 1st of group G | Goal difference +7 |
| 2 | Croatia | 9 | Qualified as 1st of group D | Goal difference +6 |
| 3 | Uruguay | 9 | Qualified as 1st of group A | Goal difference +5 |
| 4 | Brazil | 7 | Qualified as 1st of group E | Goal difference +4 |
| 5 | France | 7 | Qualified as 1st of group C | Goal difference +2 |
| 6 | England | 6 | Qualified as 2nd of group G | Goal difference +5 |
| 7 | Russia | 6 | Qualified as 2nd of group A | Goal difference +4 |
| 8 exaequo | Sweden | 6 | Qualified as 1st of group F | Goal difference +3 |
| 8 exaequo | Colombia | 6 | Qualified as 1st of group H | Goal difference +3 |
| 10 | Mexico | 6 | Qualified as 2nd of group F | Goal difference -1 |
| 11 exaequo | Spain | 5 | Qualified as 1st of group B | Goal difference +1 |
| 11 exaequo | Portugal | 5 | Qualified as 2nd of group B | Goal difference +1 |
| 11 exaequo | Danemark | 5 | Qualified as 2nd of group C | Goal difference +1 |
| 11 exaequo | Switzerland | 5 | Qualified as 2nd of group E | Goal difference +1 |
| 15 | Japon | 4 | Qualified as 2nd of group H | Goal difference +0 |
| 16 | Argentina | 4 | Qualified as 2nd of group D | Goal difference -1 |
8th of final
Here ere the coming matches and estimated probabilty of win for each team, based on their results from games during pools.
| Team A | Team B | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Country | Points | Place | Estimated win probability % | Country | Points | Place | Estimated win probability% |
| France | 7 | 5 | 81 | Argentine | 4 | 16 | 19 |
| Uruguay | 9 | 3 | 79 | Portugal | 5 | 11 | 21 |
| Spain | 5 | 5 | 58 | Russia | 6 | 7 | 42 |
| Croatia | 9 | 2 | 85 | Danemark | 5 | 11 | 15 |
| Brazil | 7 | 5 | 67 | Mexico | 6 | 10 | 33 |
| Belgique | 9 | 5 | 75 | Japan | 4 | 15 | 25 |
| Sweden | 6 | 8 | 58 | Switzerland | 5 | 11 | 42 |
| Colombia | 6 | 8 | 43 | England | 6 | 6 | 57 |
Note
All calculus executed using R language. All images have been produced with data.tree package .