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2018 FIFA World cup football is reaching end of pool phase. It is now time, to revisit, previous blog post on this topic, and to analyze results of the 8 groups.

Results

Let’s review each group and analyze how it fits with provided diagrams of previous post

group A

TeamGames playedVictoriesTiesDefeatsGoals scoredgoals concededgoal differencepoints
Uruguay 3300505 9
Russia 3201844 6
Saudi Arabia310227-53
Egypt 300326-40

Very simple group, from a result point of view. No tie, one great leader, that is Uruguay, won all its games. One second leader, that won all its games except one. Refer to first diagram of previous post and you’ll see that it is the most extreme case on far left of the diagram without any tie.

group B

TeamGames playedVictoriesTiesDefeatsGoals scoredgoals concededgoal differencepoints
Spain 3120651 5
Portugal3120541 5
IR Iran 3111220 4
Morroco 301224-21

Much more complex group, much disputed, and a final tie on first place between Spain and Portugal. Refer to first tie diagram of previous post to consider result. Untie between the two team is given by the rules Official document. Look at page 26 to get the decision rules allowing to break the ties at the end of the group matches. Here, decision is taken on number of goals scored that is the c) condition considered, that allows to differentiate Spain from Portugal.

group C

TeamGames playedVictoriesTiesDefeatsGoals scoredgoals concededgoal differencepoints
France 3210312 7
Danemark 3120211 5
Peru 3102220 3
Australia301225-31

Simple case, no tie, one leader France, one second Danemark. Refer to diagram and you’ll see that it is the 4th case from the left of the diagram.

group D

TeamGames playedVictoriesTiesDefeatsGoals scoredgoals concededgoal differencepoints
Croatia 3300716 9
Argentina 311135-2 4
Nigeria 310234-1 3
Iceland 301225-31

No tie, one top leader Croatia, one second miraculated Argentina. Refer to diagram and you’ll see that it is the 2nd case from the left of the diagram.

group E

TeamGames playedVictoriesTiesDefeatsGoals scoredgoals concededgoal differencepoints
Brazil 3210514 7
Switzerland3120541 5
Serbia 310224-2 3
Costa Rica 301225-31

No tie, one top leader Brazil, one vigourous second Switzerland. 4th case from the left taken on diagram.

group F

TeamGames playedVictoriesTiesDefeatsGoals scoredgoals concededgoal differencepoints
Sweden 3201523 6
Mexico 320134-1 6
Korea Republic3102330 3
Germany 310224-23

A great surprise with Germany outgoing the competition. Nearly impredictable result! Tie on first place with 6 points, that is 2nd case from the left taken on diagram.

group G

TeamGames playedVictoriesTiesDefeatsGoals scoredgoals concededgoal differencepoints
Belgium3300927 9
England3201835 6
Tunisia310237-4 3
Panama 300319-80

No tie. Clear winner Belgium. Good second England. Refer to 1st case from left of diagram.

group H

TeamGames playedVictoriesTiesDefeatsGoals scoredgoals concededgoal differencepoints
Colombia3201523 6
Japan 3111440 4
Senegal 3111440 4
Poland 310225-33

No tie for first place, Colombia. Tie for second place. Refer to 5 case from left of diagram. Tie break down by FIFA rule h) page 26. Apparently, first time in history where fair-play enters in action to decide between two teams.

Team performance

If we rank teams according to the obtained points, and consider official untie rules, then following table provides team performance, according to FIFA

PlaceTeamPointsQualified asComment
1Belgium9Qualified as 1st of group GGoal difference +7
2Croatia9Qualified as 1st of group DGoal difference +6
3Uruguay9Qualified as 1st of group AGoal difference +5
4Brazil7Qualified as 1st of group EGoal difference +4
5France7Qualified as 1st of group CGoal difference +2
6England6Qualified as 2nd of group GGoal difference +5
7Russia6Qualified as 2nd of group AGoal difference +4
8 exaequoSweden6Qualified as 1st of group FGoal difference +3
8 exaequoColombia6Qualified as 1st of group HGoal difference +3
10Mexico6Qualified as 2nd of group FGoal difference -1
11 exaequoSpain5Qualified as 1st of group BGoal difference +1
11 exaequoPortugal5Qualified as 2nd of group BGoal difference +1
11 exaequoDanemark5Qualified as 2nd of group CGoal difference +1
11 exaequoSwitzerland5Qualified as 2nd of group EGoal difference +1
15Japon4Qualified as 2nd of group HGoal difference +0
16Argentina4Qualified as 2nd of group DGoal difference -1

8th of final

Here ere the coming matches and estimated probabilty of win for each team, based on their results from games during pools.

Team ATeam B
CountryPointsPlaceEstimated win probability %CountryPointsPlaceEstimated win probability%
France7581Argentine41619
Uruguay9379Portugal51121
Spain5558Russia6742
Croatia9285Danemark51115
Brazil7567Mexico61033
Belgique9575Japan41525
Sweden6858Switzerland51142
Colombia6843England6657
Note

All calculus executed using R language. All images have been produced with data.tree package .